PJM INTERCONNECTION · PROTOTYPE

Queue Reality Check

Pick a substation, see every project queued ahead of you, and toggle build/withdraw assumptions to find out how much capacity actually blocks yours.

Point of Interconnection & Filter

Point of Interconnection (POI)

Technology Filter the queue projects shown below

Raw Queue Ahead

all queued projects, MW nameplate

Select a POI to see projects

Probability-Weighted

expected capacity at default assumptions

Prob-weighted by phase, tech & age

Your Scenario

based on your toggles below

Toggle rows to adjust assumptions

Probabilities calibrated from LBNL Queued Up 2023 — PJM-specific completion rates, projects entering queue 2000–2018. · Methodology

Prototype, static snapshot. Build probabilities are heuristic, not power-flow analysis. Override individual projects below to encode what you know that the model doesn't.

Queued Projects

⚡

Select a Point of Interconnection

Choose a substation above to see queued projects and run your scenario.

What this means

Raw Queue Ahead is the sum of nameplate MW for every project that has entered the queue at or near your chosen substation, regardless of likelihood. This is the number you'd read off a raw PJM queue export. It overstates actual competition significantly because most projects never reach commercial operation.

Probability-Weighted applies a build probability to each project based on three factors: its current study phase (how far along in the interconnection process), its technology type (solar and storage historically have different completion rates from one another), and how long it has been in the queue (older projects are more likely to withdraw). The formula is clamp(base_rate × tech_modifier × age_modifier, 5%, 98%). This is a more realistic estimate of how much capacity will actually interconnect ahead of yours.

Your Scenario lets you override the defaults for individual projects based on information you have that the model doesn't: a competitor you know has financing, a project rumored to be withdrawing, or a cluster you've heard is stalled in restudy. Mark a project Will Build to count its full nameplate MW; mark it Will Withdraw to remove it entirely. Projects left on Default continue using the probability model. Your Scenario updates instantly as you toggle rows.